As at 4pm today, severe tropical cyclone Pam was located about 200 nautical miles south of Port Vila and about 200 nautical miles east of Noumea in New Caledonia.
Once the eye of Pam moves south past 25S, NZ Metservice takes over responsibility of issuing Tropical Cyclone Bulletins and associated warnings from RSMC Nadi. The diagram below shows the areas of responsibility for tropical cyclones. At this stage, Pam is expected to cross 25S around 7am tomorrow morning (Sunday).
Cyclone Pam is expected to have a large impact in New Zealand. A warning for heavy rain has been issued for Gisborne, the northern Hawkes Bay ranges and the ranges of Eastern Bay of Plenty. A warning for severe gales has been issued for the Bay of Plenty, especially in the east and for Gisborne.
Watches for severe gales have been issued for a broader area including Northland, Coromandel, Great Barrier Island and northern Hawkes Bay. A watch for heavy rain has been issued for Eastern Northland and Coromandel including Great Barrier Island, and Hawkes Bay (except northern Hawkes Bay where a Warning is in force). The watch is also an alert for dangerous coastal conditions over the east coast of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Wairarapa.
Note that sea conditions are expected to become extremely dangerous on the north and east coasts of the North Island. This is a map showing swell height in metres at midday on Monday. This swell is exceptionally large, especially in Gisborne and the Bay of Plenty where it could be about seven metres. This is likely to lead to widespread coastal erosion. Anyone considering venturing near or into the water should take extra precautions and be sure to check the latest forecasts for expected dangerous conditions.