There’s always a blade somewhere that needs a clip. In Summer, with the rain and the sunshine, well it kind of grows before your eyes. You can almost hear it.

Possibly best to think of it more like ‘getting a piece of pie’, as used so well in Men in Black. It’s a time for contemplation, and review, where the thoughts can simply pop into your head.

The Sydney Hobart has always been about transitions (from weather system to weather system). Back quite a while ago now, the only transition you seemed to get was from cold to freezing, and it left you wondering why you even bothered to clip the kite gear up in the first place.

Now the 2023 Sydney Hobart is going to be all about transitions. That will make it a Navigator’s race. Yet there is a certain old school element to it all. Not smoking jackets and slippers, but more companionway hatch. Change is a cornerstone of the weather Downunder at this time of year, and yes, the screen can reveal so much, but eyeballs play their own, unique, and immediately verifiable role in things.

On many an occasion over the last few days the weather radar would have insisted we were getting pummelled, yet a step outside revealed a different truth. For sure the light and sound show was immense, like to see a rock band replicate that, and someone was definitely getting wet. It just wasn’t us at that time. Maybe later. Maybe not in that cell. For that is the other aspect to embrace. Things can be quite pocketed, and change rapidly.

There are four Supermaxis contesting the 2023 Sydney Hobart, and it might be a while before we see that number again, as andoo Comanche is off to Europe after this, and it would seem Scallywag is going along as well. Importantly, the daily double may be on offer (Line Honours and Overall win under IRC) to any of the big four, but the triple would seem to be too much of a stretch. Maybe five hours off Comanche’s own record pace.

Starting in brisk East Nor’easters, and with storm cells covering you all the way down the coast, there is meant to be a good SW breeze off the bottom of the NSW coast/VIC border by the time they get there, and it all depends on how quickly they can get to Green Cape and make their declarations. It’s a drag race. Gabo Island looks like living up to its name (Got A Bit On) for them. Eyes forward and West would be the answer. In the last 12 hours or so, running further out offshore after the start to get into the brisk East Australia Current moving South is no longer favoured, becoming a waste of miles.

Interestingly, the models vary with regard to the WSW howlers that have roared through Bass Straight. Earlier on they looked like abating quickly, and so the gate gets shut to those behind. Now, well they should remain strong throughout the 27th and 28th, and possibly even up to the 30th.

No doubt this is what has brought the village of the TPs back under three days of elapsed time. Do watch that space, as this is the Goldilocks moment. Find the right porridge and it is just right and they are back in for overall contention. Miss it, and the biguns as well as 45-footers if the maxis get locked out off the bottom of Tassie go right back into contention. If the mini maxis have held on (supermaxis have not fully stretched their legs), then they could get a look in here too. The journey from say St Helens/Bicheno area to the Organ Pipes will be a real challenge for the leaders, for it could be Nor’east, maybe Sou’east, and even a direct Southerly. There’s a mixed bag for you. It is this sector that will no doubt deliver the answer to whether record pace is on, or not, and which Division is to be anointed in 2023.

Speaking of Tasmania, the low-pressure system that sort of hovers off the central/Southern NSW coast effectively bends the high pressure system around Maatsuyker Island at the bottom of Tassie like it is some giant anvil. There will be a lot of breeze in it (20-30 knots worth), and with the low creeping South, there is even the chance of rain. Yummy. My personal favourite when offshore. (Not).

There is a myriad of things to factor into an overall equation. Rain we mentioned, cloud, as it pertains to wind velocity and direction, waves, especially as you head further South, and then the low itself as it takes up ‘residence’ in the lee (East Coast) of Tassie. It will be like some really poor house band, and drag cold, and possibly fresh to frightening Sou’westers in with it as Thursday unfolds and subsequently turns into Friday. Perhaps a chance for a Hobart of olde? You know the kind. When you sold all your wet weather gear off whilst standing at the Customs House, insisting this was your last – EVER. We’ll see…

Please enjoy your yachting, stay safe, and thanks for tuning into Sail-World.com

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by LawConnect