There appears to be a lot to play for in the Southern Ocean casino over the next few days, as the top two boats on the Vendée Globe leaderboard try to cash in on their position.

Pre-race favorite Charlie Dalin opted not to retreat from the advancing storm, the first of the Southern Ocean leg, taking his chances by the Ice Gate and staying just north of Kerguelen Islands.

12hrs ago, if the weather plays his way, Dalin looked to be on the edge of emerging with a 1,000nm lead over third placed Youann Richomme, who opted to sail north and away from the centre of the Low which hit the front runners earlier this week.

Both are now paying the price for their strategies, trying to get around the western corner of the Ice Gate, before being able to head east.

However at the 1800hrs UTC sked Dec 7, Dalin’s projected lead calculated by the weather routing function of Predictwind had the race favorites lead cut back to 543nm over Richomme, the lead boat of the northern strategy group.

But four hours later with Dalin just around the corner of the Ice Gate and sailing straight along it in an easterly direction, his projected lead at the end of the 3500nm to the Virtual Waypoint had extended by 140nm. Richomme on the other hand still had to sail a little further south, before turning east.

Had the weather systems played a different hand, Richomme and others that were in his corner, could have dropped down into the flat top of the Ice Gate, and probably not have lost that much – particularly the game played out the way it has with Dalin and the second placed Sébastien Simon (Groupe Dubreuil) – who was the only competitor to stay with Dakin in a position to the south of the Keugulen Islands – got stuck to the south of the Western and most northern corner of the Ice Gate.

Dalin has rounded the corner of the Ice Gate at the 2200hrs UTC sked and will be heading into fast changing weather systems – as storms build out of Lows and Highs intervene – providing lighter winds for the sailors, and then inflame the wind strength as they grind up against a low, trying to push its way through the Southern Ocean – like a passenger on a crowded platform trying to catch a train.

With that scenario the odds are probably better on the roulette table at a casino. The difficulty for all competitors whether ahead or behind is being able to recover from an error in a course where the fairways, sandtraps and rough are all changing position.

Equally one competitor’s misfortune is another’s opportunity. And race leader Charlie Dalin is a path finder, highlighting for those following where, and where not to go.

Normally, in the absence of an Ice Gate, trailing competitors would just dive south, hope for lighter winds, keep a good iceberg watch, and make a gain by sailing a shorter distance.

However that is not an option in this edition of the Vendee Globe, and the Ice Gate is a virtual but hard border forcing a game of follow the leader.

more info:vendeeglobe.org/en 

by Richard Gladwell