The Vendee Globe fleet has spread wide as skippers pick their best navigational strategy to get them south, through the Doldrums and into the Tradewinds around the South Atlantic high.

Update at 1000hrs: Vendee Globe are still calling Jean le Cam the race leader. His cellmate, Conrad Colman, is now ranked 5th overall. The early front runners in the 24,400nm race are now well back in the DTF method (which is blind asto boatspeed or windspeed) and appear to be heading west.

The fleet leader using the flawed Distance To Finish (DTF) method used by the organisers at the 0200hrs UTC sked on November 16, 2024, race veteran (Tout Commence en Finistere), a new daggerboard IMOCA is shown as being the lead boat with 22701.47nm to the race finish in Les Sables d’Olonne. He is the most southerly boat and also the most easterly sitting close to the African coast and the heat effect of the Sahara desert, which can have a significant effect on killing the breeze. Le Cam is also in a daggerboard version of the IMOCA, which he believes is a better performance option in the lighter winds, as it can run a deeper angle downwind than the more draggy full foilers.

23nm behind him on a similar part of the Atlantic is New Zealander Conrad Colman, also in a dagger board IMOCA MS Amlin.

The spread across the fleet is over 800nm – Vendee Globe – 1000hrs UTC – Day 6 – November 16, 2024 – photo © Predictwind.com

In the centre group the leader on the DTF method is Italian Giancarlo Pedote sailing Prysmian – a full foiler – he was reckoned to be 7.26nm astern of Le Cam on in terms of distance to sail to France.

The three previous race leaders, all in full foilers, Sam Goodchild (GBR) (Vulnerable), Nicolas Lunven (FRA) (Holcim PRB) and Thomas Ruyant (FRA) (Vulnerable) who is the western most boat of the now 39 boat fleet. [Goodchild and Ruyen are part of the same TS racing team and share the name sponsor name Vulnerable.org, but with different designs of IMOCA).

However using the more accurate basis of weather routing, rather than a measuring ruler, it is possible using Predictwind to determine who, with the currently available weather data, will be first to reach the first major waypoint – turning at the Cape of Good Hope – the first of three capes passed by the fleet.

Sam Goodchild has some tricky alight winds to negotiate – and must go further west before heading south – Vendee Globe – 1000hrs UTC – Day 6 – November 16, 2024 – photo © Predictwind.com

On this basis (we’ve used the first Ice Gate as a reference point) Predictwind calculates that Giancarlo Pedote (ITA) will be first into the serious part of the Southern Ocean and starting to run along the edge of the Ice Gate. Pedote will take 14days and about 22hours to reach the opening of the Ice Gate.

By the same calculation method, of the boats plotted Thomas Ruyant will also take 14 days 22hours to reach the Ice Gate – setting the two foilers up for a thrilling race through the Southern Ocean.

The other two Sam Goodchild and Nicolas Lunven who are equidistant laterally across the front group are also calculated to reach the entrance to the Ice Gate in about the same 14 days 20hrs.

Jean le Cam is estimated to reach the entrance to the Ice Gate in 17 days and 2hrs with Conrad Colman predicted to take 18-19 days to reach the same point.

Thomas Ruyant is the most westerly boat, but must go further west. Three of the Predictwind weather feeds offer a path into fresher breeze before heading South.- Vendee Globe – 1000hrs UTC – Day 6 – November 16, 2024 – photo © Predictwind.com

Weather data, of course is not accurate that far out and Predictwind uses the current data to the point of reliability and then extends until the required waypoint.

Given that the foiling boats are all showing a course that runs close to the Brazilian coast a future routing exercise could involve inserting a waypoint around Fortaleza off the Brazilian coast in a similar position that has been used as a rounding mark in the previous Volvo Ocean Race and using a set of weather data that is more accurate in the short term.

Jean le Cam is recommended to move to the left (east) before he can head south and had a big area of light winds to negotiate – Vendee Globe – 1000hrs UTC – Day 6 – November 16, 2024 – photo © Predictwind.com